{"id":15,"date":"2024-11-15T23:08:36","date_gmt":"2024-11-16T04:08:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/web.uri.edu\/climate-dynamics-lab\/?page_id=15"},"modified":"2026-03-01T08:46:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-01T13:46:08","slug":"publications","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/web.uri.edu\/climate-dynamics-lab\/publications\/","title":{"rendered":"Publications"},"content":{"rendered":"<a class=\"cl-button  \" href=\"https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/citations?user=EmAjMvkAAAAJ&amp;hl=en\" title=\"\">GooGle Scholar<\/a>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2026:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Zhang, M., Medina-Elizalde, M., Burns, S., Polanco-Martinez, J., <strong>Karmalkar, A. V.<\/strong>, McGee, D., Hu, H.M. and Shen, C.C. (2026). Linkages between Caribbean hydroclimate, atmospheric CO2, and methane production on orbital to millennial timescales.\u00a0<em>Quaternary Science Reviews<\/em>,\u00a0<em>373<\/em>, p.109716. [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0277379125005360\">Link<\/a>]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2025:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Sadai, S., <strong>Karmalkar, A. V.<\/strong>, Pollard, D., Dong, Y., Lucas, E., Gomez, N., DeConto, R. and Condron, A. (2025). Antarctic meltwater alters future projections of climate and sea level.&nbsp;<em>Nature Communications<\/em>,&nbsp;<em>16<\/em>(1), p.9271. [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-025-64438-3\">Link<\/a>]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Agel, L., Barlow, M., Skinner, C., &amp; <strong>Karmalkar, A. V.<\/strong> (2025). Drought Weather in the Northeast US.&nbsp;<em>Journal of Climate<\/em>. doi: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JCLI-D-24-0280.1 [<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JCLI-D-24-0280.1\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JCLI-D-24-0280.1\">Link<\/a>]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weiss, M., Holland, A. R., D&#8217;Amato, A. W., Deegan, L. A., Farmer, W. H., Hoving, C., <strong>Karmalkar, A. V.<\/strong>, Latzka, A., Magee, M., McIntyre, P. B. and Morelli, T. L. et al. (2025). Relationship-centered engagement bridges the divide between science and management, and enhances climate adaptation.&nbsp;<em>BioScience<\/em>, p.biaf087. [<a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/bioscience\/advance-article-abstract\/doi\/10.1093\/biosci\/biaf087\/8205518\">Link<\/a>]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Travis-Taylor, L., Medina-Elizalde, M., Paj\u00f3n, J. M., <strong>Karmalkar, A. V.<\/strong>, Polanco-Mart\u00ednez, J. M., Kinsley, C. W. and McGee, D. (2025). Hydroclimate variability in the northern Caribbean during the last deglaciation was modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation and climate events.&nbsp;<em>Communications Earth &amp; Environment<\/em>,&nbsp;<em>6<\/em>(1), p.498. [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43247-025-02465-0\">Link<\/a>]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tsalickis, A., Vachula, R. S., <strong>Karmalkar, A. V.<\/strong>, Balascio, N. L., &amp; Waters, M. N. (2025). Distinct latitudinal gradients define Holocene fire trends across the southeastern USA.&nbsp;<em>Quaternary Science Reviews<\/em>,&nbsp;<em>350<\/em>, 109161. [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0277379124006632?casa_token=nHxhOnIK89cAAAAA:3I0wAi7_qpfzYeoVMrejjQDvdCNogyTYTyMsVRO61nYvOdVQwQBUGw40uE-8Thauf2rWTxJCaZk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Link<\/a>]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2024<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Vachula, R. S., Balascio, N. L., <strong><strong>Karmalkar, A. V.<\/strong><\/strong>, Stockton, J., Landolt, B. (2024). Central Appalachian paleofire reconstruction reveals fire-climate-vegetation dynamics across the last glacial-interglacial transition. <em>Quaternary Science Reviews<\/em>, 338, 108805. doi:10.1016\/j.quascirev.2024.108805 [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0277379124003068\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Link<\/a>]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lapointe, F., <strong>Karmalkar, A. V.<\/strong>, Bradley, R. S., Retelle, M. J., Wang, F. (2024). Climate extremes in Svalbard over the last two millennia are linked to atmospheric blocking. <em>Nature Communications<\/em>, 15(1), 4432. doi:10.1038\/s41467-024-48603-8 [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-48603-8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Link<\/a>]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rawlins, M. A. and <strong><strong>Karmalkar, A. V.<\/strong><\/strong> (2024). Regime Shifts in Arctic Terrestrial Hydrology Manifested From Impacts of Climate Warming. <em>The Cryosphere<\/em>, 18, 1033\u20131052. doi:10.5194\/tc-18-1033-2024 [<a href=\"https:\/\/tc.copernicus.org\/articles\/18\/1033\/2024\/tc-18-1033-2024-discussion.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Link<\/a>]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>[Report] <strong>Karmalkar, A. V.,<\/strong> S. Sadai, A. Chaughule, M. Staudinger (2024). Chapter 1: Climate Change in the Northeast United States. In: A regional synthesis of climate data to inform the 2025 State Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeast United States. [Staudinger, M., A. Karmalkar, K. Terwilliger, K. Burgio, A. Lubeck, H. Higgins, T. Rice, T. Morelli, A. D\u2019Amato (eds.)]. DOI Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Cooperator Report, 2024. [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencebase.gov\/catalog\/item\/5f2c1eef82ceae4cb3c2ce0f\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Link<\/a>]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>[Report] Staudinger, M.D., <strong>A.V. Karmalkar<\/strong>, K. Terwilliger, K. Burgio, A. Lubeck, H. Higgins, T. Rice, T.L. Morelli, A. D\u2019Amato. (2024). A regional synthesis of climate data to in- form the 2025 State Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeast U.S., DOI Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Cooperator Report. 406 p. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.21429\/t352- 9q86 [Report][<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencebase.gov\/catalog\/item\/62866381d34e3bef0c9a813c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Link<\/a>]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2023:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Travis-Taylor, L., M. Medina-Elizalde, <strong>A. V. Karmalkar<\/strong>, J. Polanco-Martinez et al (2023). Last glacial hydroclimate variability in the Yucatan Peninsula not just driven by ITCZ shifts. <em>Scientific Reports<\/em> 13, 14356. doi:10.1038\/s41598-023-40108-6 [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-023-40108-6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Link<\/a>]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2018 &#8211; 2022:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Siren, A. P. K., C. S. Sutherland,<strong> A. V. Karmalkar<\/strong>, M. J. Duveneck, T. L. Morelli (2022). Forecasting species distributions: correlation does not equal causation. <em>Diversity &amp; Distributions<\/em>. doi.org\/10.1111\/ddi.13480<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Karmalkar A. V.<\/strong> and Radley M. Horton (2021). Drivers of exceptional coastal warming in the northeastern United States. <em>Nature Climatic Change<\/em>, 11, 854-860. doi:10.1038\/s41558-021-01159-7.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sexton, D. M., C. F. McSweeney, J. W. Rostron, K. Yamazaki, B. B. Booth, J. M. Murphy, L. Regayre, J. S. Johnson, &amp; <strong>A. V. Karmalkar<\/strong> (2021). A perturbed parameter ensemble of HadGEM3-GC3. 05 coupled model projections: part 1: selecting the parameter combinations. <em>Climate Dynamics<\/em>, 56(11), 3395-3436. doi.org\/10.1007\/s00382-021-05709-9.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Siddique, R., <strong>A. V. Karmalkar<\/strong>, F. Sun, R. Palmer (2020). Hydrological extremesacross the Commonwealth of Massachusetts in a changing climate. <em>Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies<\/em>, 32, 100733.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Karmalkar A. V.<\/strong>, J. M. Thibeault, A. M. Bryan, A. Seth (2019b). Identifying credible and diverse GCMs for regional climate change studies. Case study: Northeastern United States. <em>Climatic Change<\/em>. doi:10.1007\/s10584-019-02411-y.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Karmalkar A. V.,<\/strong> D. M. H. Sexton, J. Murphy, B. B. B. Booth, J. Rostron, and D. McNeall (2019a). Finding plausible and diverse model variants of a climate model. Part II: Development and Validation of Methodology. <em>Climate Dynamics<\/em>. doi:10.1007\/s00382-019-04617-3.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sexton, D. M. H., <strong>A. V. Karmalkar<\/strong>, J. Murphy et al (2019). Finding plausible and diverse model variants of a climate model. Part I: Cheap experiments to assess model performance at weather and climate timescales. <em>Climate Dynamics<\/em>. doi:10.1007\/s00382-019-04625-3.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kirchho\ufb00, C. J., J. J. Barsugli, G. L. Galford, <strong>A. V. Karmalkar<\/strong>, K. Lombardo, S. Stephenson, M. Barlow, A. Seth, G. Wang (2019). Climate assessments for local action. <em>Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.<\/em> doi:10.1175\/BAMS-D-18-0138.1.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Karmalkar A. V.<\/strong> (2018). Interpreting results from the NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX ensembles in the context of uncertainty in regional climate change projections. <em>Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc<\/em>. doi:10.1175\/BAMS-D-17-0127.1.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>pre-2018:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Karmalkar, A. V.<\/strong> and R. S. Bradley (2017). Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5<sup>o<\/sup>C and 2<sup>o<\/sup>C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States. <em>PLoS ONE<\/em> 12(1): e0168697. doi:10.1371\/journal.pone.0168697.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bodas-Salcedo A., T. Andrews, <strong>A. V. Karmalkar<\/strong>, and M. A. Ringer (2016). Cloud Liquid Water Path and Radiative Feedbacks over the Southern Ocean. <em>Geophys. Res. Lett.<\/em>, 43(20).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Karmalkar, A. V.<\/strong>, M. A. Taylor, J. Campbell, T. Stephenson, M. New, A. Centella, A. Benzanilla, J. Charlery (2013). A Review of Observed and Projected Changes in Climate for the Islands in the Caribbean (edited by H. Diaz). <em>Atmosfera<\/em>, Vol 26, No 2, pp. 283-309. ISSN 0187-6236.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Karmalkar, A. V.<\/strong>, R. S. Bradley, and H. F. Diaz (2011). Climate Change in Central America and Mexico: Regional Climate Model Validation and Climate Change Projections. <em>Climate Dynamics<\/em>, doi:10.1007\/s00382-011-1099-9.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Buytaert, W., M. Vuille, A. Dewulf, R. Urrutia, <strong>A. V. Karmalkar<\/strong>, and R. Celleri (2010). Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling: implications for water resources management. <em>Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.<\/em>, 14, 1247-1258.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Martin Medina-Elizalde, S. J. Burns, Y. Asmerom, D. W. Lea, Lucien von Gunten, V. Polyak, M. Vuille and <strong>A. V. Karmalkar<\/strong> (2010). High resolution climate record from the Yucatan Peninsula spanning the Maya Terminal Classic Period. <em>Earth and Planetary Science Letters<\/em>, 298(1-2), 255-262.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Karmalkar, A. V.<\/strong>, R. S. Bradley, and H. F. Diaz (2008). Climate change scenario for Costa Rican montane forests. <em>Geophys. Res. Lett.<\/em>, 35, L11702, doi:10.1029\/2008GL033940.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2026: 2025: 2024: 2023: 2018 &#8211; 2022: pre-2018:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5250,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"class_list":["post-15","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/web.uri.edu\/climate-dynamics-lab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/15","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/web.uri.edu\/climate-dynamics-lab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/web.uri.edu\/climate-dynamics-lab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/web.uri.edu\/climate-dynamics-lab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5250"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/web.uri.edu\/climate-dynamics-lab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/web.uri.edu\/climate-dynamics-lab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/15\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":237,"href":"https:\/\/web.uri.edu\/climate-dynamics-lab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/15\/revisions\/237"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/web.uri.edu\/climate-dynamics-lab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}