This project will use data analysis and advanced 3D visualizations of flooding (inundation) and erosion modeling to understand the coastal impacts and response to hurricane and nor’easter storms together with sea level rise in pilot site shorelines and communities. For two dynamic sedimentary sites (Ninigret/Trustom NWR, and Cape Cod National Seashore), along with these simulations, shoreline/barrier and back-barrier evolution will be predicted for a series of SLR scenarios. Here, scenarios will simulate with and without site specific natural and nature-based feature (NNBF) adaptation strategies to better understand how potential strategies could address resource management concerns and enhance resilience. 

With the goal to inform decision makers, the team will engage NPS, NWR and key community stakeholder groups at each study site to tailor the project based on site-specific circumstances and support planning related to themes including ecosystem restoration, infrastructure planning, and stakeholder education. The project will provide high-resolution model outputs of the impact of future storm/SLR scenarios, in terms of vulnerability of ecosystems and infrastructure, and accompanying compelling visualizations. 

There are two distinct modeling types used and integrated to create robust analysis and visualizations of the flooding impacts and changing shorelines such as inundation, barrier beach migration, sediment transport, and wetland changes over time.  

Hydrodynamic models will simulate coastal flooding and wave action at the proposed sites from extreme nor’easters and hurricanes combined with SLR. The effort will couple several models to simulate coastal water dynamics and address current and future social and ecological changes in hazard exposure. This project will build upon existing high-resolution modeling in the region with ADCIRC and employ a high-resolution version of NOAA’s operational Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System. 

Hydrodynamic models: ADCIRC-WAVEWATCH III surge/wave prediction models, FUNWAVE, ADCIRC-SWAN 

Hydro-morphodynamic models will be used in high resolution (5-10 m) in the coastal zone to simulate sediment transport and changes with time in shoreline morphology, specifically at the dynamic coastal lagoon sites. These coastal models are forced with the results of the hydrodynamics models in deeper water. Predicted changes in shoreline morphology will target both long term (decadal) and short storm (event) time scales. The objective of the effort is to improve the storm related hazard assessment in a changing climate considering shoreline morphological changes besides SLR,  and propose adaptation scenario accordingly.   

Hydro-morpho dynamic models: Long-term scale: 1D ShorelineS; Storm event scale : 2DH- XBeach 

Visualizations

Realistic 3D visualizations coupled with modeled outputs can promote engagement by making the results immediately relatable, local, and tangible to stakeholder. They will serve an essential bridging function between model outputs, and local concerns with pathways to adaptation.  

Development of visualizations employs iterative practices maximizing the ability of stakeholders to shape visualization priorities. Building upon significant existing 3D infrastructure has already been created for specific structures/vegetation making up extensive “virtual” sites that can be re-positioned and reused to support changing visualization foci and model outputs. This will be expanded to include additional sites, new infrastructure for NEBE, and new 3D proxy objects (e.g., local vegetation species, structures, and landforms) as necessitated by the stakeholder directed processes. Work in Tier 1 sites will also include transformations of landforms and vegetation based on model outputs and measured changes to represent landscape change. Number of visualized locations in the sites will be determined by stakeholders.