Hydrologist David Vallee looks at the intensity and frequency of rainfall, where water flows, and how species of trees, birds and insects are dying or disappearing in Rhode Island.

“I can’t tell you where we’re headed, but it’s different,” Vallee told the audience gathered for a recent extreme weather seminar presented by the Metcalf Institute for Marine and Environmental Reporting and The Providence Journal.

Hydrologist-in-charge for the National Weather Service’s Northeast River Forecast Center, Vallee joked that the weather changes meant job security for him.

But, more seriously, he said, the storms pummeling Rhode Island on a more frequent and sustained basis impact the life, livelihoods and property of many people.

Experts like Vallee who model watersheds are seeing changes in behavior in the smaller rivers, which may serve as an indicator of what to expect in the future on a broader scale.

“We may see things diminish, or they may plateau,” he said. “But, we’re not built for this kind of rainfall.”

The current infrastructure was based on the old models, how rain fell and where it flowed, Vallee said. Shopping malls, paved roads, areas zoned for development — none were designed for a new reality of precipitation that is changing in terms of frequency, severity and intensity.

The seminar — Predicting and Responding to Extreme Weather Events — was part of the Metcalf Institute’s Peter B. Lord Seminars on the Environment, named after reporter, Peter Lord, who covered the environment for The Providence Journal for 30 years. The daylong events are designed to increase news coverage of important environmental concerns facing Rhode Island.

Sunshine Menezes, Metcalf executive director, said the extreme weather session was intended to assist reporters as they cover the major storms that tend to hit New England during the fall season and seek to inform their audiences about extreme weather events, ranging from hurricanes to large rains and snowstorms.

Hurricane season

The extreme weather seminar also featured Dr. Isaac Ginis, professor of oceanography at the University of Rhode Island Graduate School of Oceanography.

Ginis explained hurricane models and forecasting, and compared the New England Hurricane of 1938 and last year’s Hurricane Sandy. The Hurricane of ’38 took a straighter path inland, and made a direct, fast landfall. Sandy swung out wider and then hung a left turn into the coast.

The projected impact of a 1938-like storm today would ring up estimated losses of $40-$50 billion, block most roads with fallen trees, and leave 10 million people without power in the immediate aftermath, said Ginis as he talked about weather variability and what the changing phenomenon may mean.

Climate change is not only about extreme events, he said. Nor, is climate change about relating a particular event to cause and effect. Rather, we can look at the so-called signature of various events and see how they might be related.

From the inland watersheds to miles of the coast, forecasters are seeing indicators of change that are bringing more frequent storms of greater intensity with larger amounts of rainfall. Coupled with outdated infrastructure design and zoning choices, this extreme weather carries both coastal and inland flooding implications.

“It’s a matter of scale, a matter of land use,” Vallee said. “You take away green space, the ability to absorb water, put more on it, the soil is wetter.”

So, it is not necessarily a one-to-one cause and effect issue, but rather a compilation of factors: one- to three-inch rain dumps in a 24-hour period plus outdated culverts, new highways and shopping malls, warmer annual temperatures, slow moving storms that gather more moisture and hang around longer, and wildly varying season-to-season snowfalls.

Coping with disaster

Jamia McDonald, executive director of the Rhode Island Emergency Management Agency, gave a guided, day-to-day look at how the state plans and copes with the new and changing weather realities.

With the perspective of three days prior to the storm and two days after, McDonald detailed a five-day picture of plan and response. The key intention, she said, is to reduce loss of life and property in disasters, protect critical infrastructure from all hazards, and lead and support through comprehensive management.

The state works with both federal and local officials, beginning with 96 hours prior to landfall. Officials watch the NOAA radar and talk with the forecasters, determining whether a storm demands attention. By 72 hours to landfall, there is a better indication of whether the state needs to start ramping up a response, how to map out the model, and prepare assets.

McDonald walked her audience through the 72-48-hour time frame and then the narrowing 48-24-hour window. Storm tracking and placement, speed and anticipated landfall — all these factors trigger decisions and coordinated planning.

Of course, she said, “Everything costs money.”

The key is how to make the proper decisions, be prepared and get people ready without overreacting. Once Rhode Island enters the 24-hour window to landfall, the state emergency planners shift the focus to shutdown mode if that is what has been decided.

Keep in mind, McDonald said, the decision to shut down state government and the road network is a $1- to $2-million-per-day discussion. It is not a decision that is made lightly, nor one that is formed too far from the critical juncture: “I can’t stress how complicated the variables are.”

Once the storm makes landfall, there is a 12-hour period, where everything comes to a standstill and all operations remain on hold until it is safe for first responders to emerge.

In the 48 hours post-landfall, the state and local agencies, and federal teams if necessary, shift to response and recovery. Officials begin to quantify the damage, they plan for reintegration of evacuees, and reconstruction efforts get under way.

 Story and photos by Amy Dunkle