Thrust 2: Predicting Ecosystem Response through Integration

Goals

  • Model and predict the distribution and source of nutrients, pollutants, low oxygen concentrations, chlorophyll and zooplankton in Narragansett Bay using lower-trophic level predictive models informed by species-specific microbial metabolic pathway models and the integrated Bay Observatory.
  • Apply mature existing nested-grid models, and develop new high-resolution circulation models to understand and predict the distribution and source of nutrients, pollutants, and low oxygen concentrations in Narragansett Bay.
  • Develop higher trophic level models for aquaculture and fisheries species of interest and integrate these with the B/E/C models of Narragansett.
  • Understand how human communities will interact and respond to changes in coastal environment under policy and market incentives for a sustainable coastal economy.

Expected Outcomes

  • A set of natural and social sciences models, and simulation output, suitable for better understanding, management, and monitoring of Narragansett Bay and related waterways. These tools will provide context for observations being collected in the region now and in the future and will be capable of aiding in the assessment of hazards, risks, mitigation and/or adaptation strategies, and uncertainties about these estuarine ecosystems and the surrounding human environment. Hypoxia, sea-level rise, storm surge, pollutant tracking, beach closures, and wastewater management are primary applications of these tools.
  • New modeling approaches, such as the high-resolution embedded biogeochemical–ecological- circulation modeling system, new species-specific Omics models, the coupling of those natural models with social science models, and the formal use of both new and existing natural observations (Narragansett Bay Observatory) and societal data collected during the project to improve these models.