Investigator:  Heather Lacy, Bryant

Scientific Theme: Neuroscience

Abstract: When patients make medical decisions, such as choosing between medication vs. surgery, it is often assumed that they are weighing the risks of each option, considering the probabilities of successful treatment and possible side effects along with the impact of those outcomes.  However, dual-process models of information processing predict that participants may be guided more by emotional associations with possible outcomes than careful deliberations about their likelihood. The proposed research plan seeks to validate a new survey instrument for measuring individual differences in the processing of risk information, a measure that distinguishes between sensitivity to probability (hypothetically derived from rational processes) and emotional reactivity (hypothetically derived from intuitive processes). First, the proposed research is aimed at establishing the independence of these two constructs by demonstrating a double-dissociation. It is hypothesized that a mood induction manipulation should affect the emotional reactivity dimension without affecting the sensitivity to probability dimension. By contrast, an educational manipulation (i.e., a cross-sectional comparison of entering and graduating actuarial students) should affect the sensitivity to probability dimension without affecting emotional reactivity.  Second, the proposed research aims to demonstrate the predictive validity of this measure. It is predicted that emotional outcomes such as trait-anxiety levels should be positively correlated with emotional reactivity, but not sensitivity to probability, as highly anxious individuals arguably experience alarm responses to situations with little actual threat.  By contrast, it is predicted that risk-seeking behavior, as measured by standardized questionnaires and by specific choice tasks, should be negatively correlated with sensitivity to probability; those who are more sensitive to increasing probability of risk are more likely to show caution and avoid risky situations. Validating this new measure will both contribute to our understanding of the emotional and cognitive mechanisms underlying risk perception at a theoretical level, and to help identify effective decision interventions for individuals who are particularly insensitive to probability information.

Human Health Relevance: When making medical decisions, such as choosing between different medications, patients often have to weigh probabilities of different outcomes. Some people may not pay attention to these probabilities, worrying equally about very rare events and very likely ones. This research is designed to identify people who don’t consider probabilities in these decisions, with the goal of improving doctor-patient communication.