Lead Researcher: Kyle McElroy, URI Department of Marine Affairs (Kyle_mcelroy@uri.edu)

This research reveals how experts and city decision-makers understand and make decisions about integrating flood risk management into urban planning. Insights can improve future municipal planning efforts. Using a mental model approach and a case study of Providence, Rhode Island, it answers the question: What factors influence the decisions to integrate FRM into urban planning, and how are they shaping FRM planning for climate change impacts to flood risk drivers in the United States?

Urban planners and decision-makers play a crucial role in directing the development and design of cities and towns in the face of climate change. They use FRM to prepare for immediate and future flood hazards, considering the likelihood and potential consequences of various flood drivers, such as precipitation, storm surge, and sea level rise. It also includes risk perception, the subjective judgment people make about a risk’s potential harm or severity. Through scholars have shown that risk perception impacts risk management, less is known about how flood risk perceptions influence municipal urban planning.

The research compares an expert mental model for FRM integrations with those of city urban planners to uncover their flood risk perceptions and explore the interplay of various influences on decisions relation to FRM as they plan for development of the future of cities. Mental models visually represent how individuals cognitively structure and organize the concepts that shape their decisions and problem-solving. Urban planners include, but are not limited to, the mayor’s office, city council members, planning commission members, and city planners.

The first part of the study involves building an expert mental model of FRM integration in municipal planning through a two-step approach: a literature review to identify existing practices and principles and interviews with U.S. FRM and urban planning experts to capture their perspectives on integration factors. This combined approach provides a deeper understanding of the planner and decision-maker perceptions beyond what literature alone offers. The second part of the study uses Providence, Rhode Island’s Comprehensive Plan update process as a case study to use the expert mental model factors to analyze the integration of FRM. Providence, Rhode Island is an ideal site for studying the integration of FRM into municipal urban planning. Rising sea levels and intensifying storm patterns are leading to increased risk of flooding in the city, particularly in low-lying areas such as downtown and the waterfront. Studies suggest that historically flood-prone areas will face greater risks, with the frequency and severity of flood events projected to worsen over time. This case study analysis will explore how providence decision-makers and planners consider flood risks, compare their views with expert perspectives, and identify the most critical factors influencing their decision-making regarding FRM, highlighting limitations that might leave Providence exposed to future flood risks.

This research offers insights to enhance future municipal planning efforts, especially as cities navigate the growing challenge of climate change and its impact on flood risks. The mental model findings can be translated into a framework for other cities to access their own decision-making processes regarding flood risk management.